How will unemployment fare following the recession?

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen more than four percentage points. Similar sharp increases in unemployment have occurred in other severe recessions, such as those in 1973-75 and 1981-82. In the aftermath of those severe recessions, the economy rapidly recovered and unemployment quickly declined. ; Will unemployment behave similarly following this recession? One reason why unemployment may not fall as quickly this time is that the labor market has changed substantively since the early 1980s. In the two recoveries since then, not only did unemployment continue to climb, but it remained persistently high in what have been termed "jobless recoveries." To the extent that labor market changes were responsible for these jobless recoveries, unemployment following the current recession may also be slow to recover. ; A second reason unemployment may not fall quickly this time is that the recession has been coupled with a systemic banking crisis. While the United States has not had many instances of similar crises in the past, evidence from the experiences of other countries may shed light on how future unemployment in the United States is likely to behave. In general, the international data reveal large and persistent increases in unemployment in the aftermath of such events. ; Knotek and Terry examine these factors and quantify their potential implications for the future U.S. unemployment rate. Their analysis suggests that recent trends in labor markets, combined with the presence of a banking crisis in the current recession, raise the likelihood that unemployment will recover much more slowly from this recession than past episodes of severe recession may suggest. Moreover, such a slow recovery has the potential to raise important questions for policymakers, including the level of unemployment consistent with their goals.

Markov-chain approximations of vector autoregressions: application of general multivariate-normal integration techniques

Discrete Markov chains can be useful to approximate vector autoregressive processes for economists doing computational work. One such approximation method first presented by Tauchen (1986) operates under the general theoretical assumption of a transformed VAR with diagonal covariance structure for the process error term. We demonstrate one simple method of more conveniently treating this approximation problem in practice using readily available multivariate-normal integration techniques to allow for arbitrary positive-semidefinite covariance structures. Examples are provided using processes with non-diagonal and singular non-diagonal error covariances.

Alternative methods of solving state-dependent pricing models

We use simulation-based techniques to compare and contrast two methods for solving state-dependent pricing models: discretization, which solves and simulates the model on a grid; and collocation, which relies on Chebyshev polynomials. While both methods produce qualitatively similar results, statistically significant quantitative differences do arise. We present evidence favoring discretization over collocation in this context, given a lack of robustness in the latter.

Corticosteroid-binding Globulin In Fetal And Adult Sheep

In the ovine fetus, plasma cortisol is bound by its high affinity binding protein corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG). Plasma CBG concentrations increase during late gestation, but the stimulus for this increase and its consequences in the fetal sheep are not known. These studies were undertaken to examine the stimulus for an increase in fetal plasma CBG, the mechanism of this increase, and the physiological significance of the increase.;Chronically catheterized fetal and adult sheep were used to examine the changes in late gestation of plasma CBG concentrations, plasma CBG glycosylation, total and free cortisol, and effects of glucocorticoids on plasma CBG. An ovine CBG cDNA was cloned and sequenced, allowing the utilization of Southern and Northern blot analysis to examine tissue distribution of sites of CBG biosynthesis and effects of glucocorticoid administration on hepatic CBG mRNA abundance. Maternal CBG was purified and the possibility of transplacental transfer of CBG from the ewe to the fetus was investigated. The ability of CBG to modulate glucocorticoid negative feedback was examined in fetal pituitary cells in culture.;Molecular analysis of the CBG cDNA demonstrated a deduced length of the mature peptide of 408 amino acids, with five consensus sites for N-glycosylation. Hepatic CBG mRNA abundance increased to reach highest concentrations at day 140 of gestation. The liver is the major site of CBG production. In the fetus, extra-hepatic sites of CBG biosynthesis include the pituitary, adrenal, kidney and lung. There is a change in CBG glycosylation in neonatal sheep from a fetal type to an adult-like type, but no transplacental transfer of CBG in rate gestation. In fetal sheep, CBG biosynthesis is stimulated by glucocorticoids while in the adult, glucocorticoid administration produced a decrease in CBG biosynthesis. CBG was able to attenuate negative feedback of glucocorticoids on both basal and CRH-stimulated ACTH output in fetal pituitary cell in culture.;Conclusions from these studies include (i) CBG biosynthesis is a function of glucocorticoid concentrations, and (ii) in the fetus, CBG attenuates glucocorticoid negative feedback at the pituitary, allowing a progressive increase in fetal plasma ACTH, and a sustained drive toward parturition

An evaluation of characteristic theory : implicit prices and the demand for nutritional attributes

The objectives of this study were: (1) to develop a theoret-ical and econometric model to estimate sets of household implicit price coefficients for nutritional attributes associated with foods consumed by households, (2) to estimate household demand functions for various dietary components of food, where the quantity of each nutritional attribute demanded by households was hypothesized to be related to the implicit prices of all nutritional attributes as well as geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic variables, and (3) to examine implications of the findings from objective one and two relative to current and future production, marketing, and consumption of foods. Household utility was assumed to be a function of total quan-tities consumed of m product characteristics, as determined by n physical quantities of goods consumed. The resulting hedonic price model stated that the price paid for each food product consumed was related to the quantities of attributes possessed by that product. By this price decomposition equation, each product price was expressed as a function of attribute prices. Allowing for prefer-ence structures to vary among households, demand for attributes would be affected by the prices of product attributes, income, and household characteristics. Data from approximately 2,200 households located in the con-tiguous states of the United States were utilized to specify household nutrient demand relationships. These data were separated by geographic location of the household to facilitate the estimation of nutrient demand relationships for households in the South, North east, North Central, and West regions of the United States. United States and regional household demand relationships were estimated for protein, fat, carbohydrates, calcium, iron, magnesium, phosphorus, vitamin A, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin, vitamin B6, vitamin B12 and vitamin C using multiple regression analysis. These nutrient demand relationships estimated the impact of implicit prices, income, and selected socioeconomic factors on household demand for the respective food nutrients

The load shedding advisor: An example of a crisis-response expert system

A Prolog-based prototype expert system is described that was implemented by the Network Operations Branch of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The purpose of the prototype was to test whether a small, inexpensive computer system could be used to host a load shedding advisor, a system which would monitor major physical environment parameters in a computer facility, then recommend appropriate operator reponses whenever a serious condition was detected. The resulting prototype performed significantly to efficiency gains achieved by replacing a purely rule-based design methodology with a hybrid approach that combined procedural, entity-relationship, and rule-based methods

A Chemical Overview of Azanza garckeana

Azanza garckeana is a popular fruit tree in Nigeria, specifically in Gombe State, where it is locally called ‘goron tula’ which means ‘Kola of Tula’. It is also found in part of some African countries. Different plant part of this small tree/shrub has recorded different uses by the locals; uses ranging from its fruits being edible and others parts helping to remedy different diseases, especially sexually related diseases. It also records use as booster for sexual performance. The uses of the plant are majorly attributed to the presence of chemicals. Its local use initiates the necessity of this review to enhance the research for drug discovery since Chemicals are the chief constituencies responsible for its medicinal importance

Mantle melting as a function of water content beneath back-arc basins

Subduction zone magmas are characterized by high concentrations of H_(2)O, presumably derived from the subducted plate and ultimately responsible for melting at this tectonic setting. Previous studies of the role of water during mantle melting beneath back-arc basins found positive correlations between the H_(2)O concentration of the mantle (H_(2)O_o ) and the extent of melting (F), in contrast to the negative correlations observed at mid-ocean ridges. Here we examine data compiled from six back-arc basins and three mid-ocean ridge regions. We use TiO_2 as a proxy for F, then use F to calculate H_(2)O_o from measured H_(2)O concentrations of submarine basalts. Back-arc basins record up to 0.5 wt % H_(2)O or more in their mantle sources and define positive, approximately linear correlations between H_(2)O_o and F that vary regionally in slope and intercept. Ridge-like mantle potential temperatures at back-arc basins, constrained from Na-Fe systematics (1350°–1500°C), correlate with variations in axial depth and wet melt productivity (∼30–80% F/wt % H_(2)O_o ). Water concentrations in back-arc mantle sources increase toward the trench, and back-arc spreading segments with the highest mean H_(2)O_o are at anomalously shallow water depths, consistent with increases in crustal thickness and total melt production resulting from high H_(2)O. These results contrast with those from ridges, which record low H_(2)O_o (<0.05 wt %) and broadly negative correlations between H_(2)O_o and F that result from purely passive melting and efficient melt focusing, where water and melt distribution are governed by the solid flow field. Back-arc basin spreading combines ridge-like adiabatic melting with nonadiabatic mantle melting paths that may be independent of the solid flow field and derive from the H_(2)O supply from the subducting plate. These factors combine significant quantitative and qualitative differences in the integrated influence of water on melting phenomena in back-arc basin and mid-ocean ridge settings

The owl’s cochlear nuclei process different sound localization cues

This paper discusses how the barn owl’s brain stem auditory pathway is divided into two physiologically and anatomically segregated channels for separate processing of interaural phase and intensity cues for sound localization. The paper also points out the power of the ‘‘downstream’’ approach by which the emergence of a higher‐order neuron’s stimulus selectivity can be traced through lower‐order stations